🔴 PENSION UPDATE
Last Updated: 14 February 2026 at 10:25 GMT
HMRC has corrected a 9-year state pension forecast error affecting around 800,000 people, mainly those who were contracted out of the Additional State Pension.
You have until 5 April 2029 to fill certain National Insurance gaps that could increase your retirement income. Check your record now to avoid missing the deadline.
Could your State Pension forecast be wrong and would you even know?
Over the past year, growing attention has focused on the HMRC state pension error, which affected digital forecasts issued to hundreds of thousands of people across the UK. For many nearing retirement, the issue was not about missed payments already received, but about projected income being higher than it should have been due to technical calculation issues.
If you are planning your retirement finances, this is not something to ignore but nor is it something to panic about. In this detailed guide, you will learn exactly what caused the issue, whether you are likely to be affected, how to check your National Insurance (NI) record, and what practical steps you can take before the critical April 2029 deadline.
You can check your official forecast here:
👉 https://www.gov.uk/check-state-pension
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
What Caused the HMRC State Pension Error?
At the heart of the HMRC state pension error is a technical issue involving people who were contracted out of the Additional State Pension between 1978 and 2016.
For decades, employees in certain workplace or public sector pension schemes paid lower National Insurance contributions. In exchange, they built up pension benefits in a private or occupational scheme rather than the Additional State Pension (previously SERPS or State Second Pension).
When the new State Pension was introduced in 2016, a transitional calculation was required. This calculation had to take into account:
- Your National Insurance record
- Any years you were contracted out
- The value of benefits already built up elsewhere
To reflect this, forecasts show a deduction called the Contracted Out Pension Equivalent (COPE).
The issue arose because, for a number of years, HMRC’s online forecasting system did not always correctly account for COPE adjustments in its projections. As a result, some individuals saw higher forecast figures than they were actually entitled to receive under the new State Pension rules.
It is important to distinguish between a forecast overstatement and an underpayment. In many cases, this was about projected entitlement rather than pensions already in payment being wrongly reduced.
Am I Affected by the 800,000 Forecast Shortfall?
The estimated 800,000 people affected were primarily those who had periods of contracting out in their employment history.
You may be more likely to be affected if you worked in the public sector before 2016, belonged to a defined benefit pension scheme, or have seen a COPE figure on your State Pension forecast.
Another group worth paying attention is parents particularly mothers who relied on Home Responsibilities Protection (HRP) or Child Benefit credits during time out of the workforce.
The only reliable way to determine whether you are personally affected is to review your National Insurance record carefully. Do not assume that because your forecast looks healthy, it is automatically correct.
How to Check If You Are Affected by the HMRC Pension Error?
To check whether the HMRC state pension error affects you, follow these steps:
- Log into your Personal Tax Account or the HMRC app.
- View your State Pension forecast.
- Cross-reference your National Insurance (NI) record with your employment history.
- Look for gaps, especially during periods when you were contracted out or claiming Home Responsibilities Protection (HRP).
When reviewing your NI record, examine each tax year individually. Some years may show as “full,” others as “partial,” and some as “not full.” If a year is incomplete, it does not automatically mean you should pay to top it up but it does mean you should investigate further.
You should also check whether your forecast includes a COPE figure. This indicates that part of your pension entitlement was built up in a workplace or private pension scheme instead of the Additional State Pension.
How to Check Your Record via the HMRC App?
If you prefer using your mobile device, the HMRC app provides access to your NI history. Once logged in, navigate to the State Pension section and review each year’s status.
Pay particular attention to years between 2006 and 2018, as these are the years currently eligible for voluntary top-ups under the extended deadline.
What Is the Contracted Out Pension Equivalent (COPE)?
The Contracted Out Pension Equivalent (COPE) is often misunderstood. It is not money that HMRC has taken away from you. Instead, it is an estimate of the pension benefits you built up in another scheme because you paid reduced National Insurance contributions.
If you were contracted out, you contributed less to the State system. In return, your employer’s pension scheme was expected to provide comparable benefits.
When calculating your new State Pension starting amount in 2016, the government deducted an amount to reflect those earlier arrangements. The COPE figure is an estimate of that value.
The confusion arose when forecasts did not always apply this deduction accurately, leading some individuals to believe they were entitled to a higher State Pension than they ultimately were.
How Much Could This Cost or Gain -You?
If your NI record contains gaps, you may be able to fill them by paying voluntary Class 3 contributions.
Below is a simplified breakdown:
| Tax Years Eligible | Approximate Cost per Year | Estimated Annual Pension Increase | Approximate Break-Even |
| 2006–2018 gaps | ~£907 | ~£300 per year | Around 3 years |
This means that paying roughly £907 for one missing year could increase your annual pension by about £300. After approximately three years of receiving your pension, you would typically recover the cost. Any additional years of life thereafter represent financial gain.
However, this is not universal. If you are already forecast to receive the full new State Pension, paying for additional years may not increase your entitlement at all. Always confirm with HMRC before making payment.
The April 2029 Deadline: Why Timing Matters?
The government extended the deadline to 5 April 2029 for people wishing to fill NI gaps dating back to 2006. Ordinarily, you can only go back six years.
This extension was introduced partly to give individuals time to review their records in light of system issues and transitional complexities from the 2016 reform.
If you delay beyond April 2029, you may permanently lose the opportunity to top up older years.
That said, urgency should not override careful decision-making. The correct approach is:
- Verify the gap
- Confirm that paying will increase your pension
- Obtain written confirmation
- Then decide
The £1.5 Billion HRP Underpayment Issue
Separate from the contracted-out forecast error is a significant issue involving Home Responsibilities Protection (HRP). This primarily affected mothers who claimed Child Benefit before 2000.
In some cases, NI credits were not correctly recorded, resulting in underpayments. The Department for Work and Pensions estimated the total value of underpayments at around £1.5 billion.
Unlike the forecast issue, HRP cases can involve actual historical underpayments. If you took time out of paid employment to raise children, it is particularly important to check that NI credits were properly applied.
Confirmed Facts vs Ongoing Reviews vs Misinformation
In financial matters, clarity is essential.
Confirmed facts
Around 800,000 forecasts were impacted. The issue involved COPE calculations. Systems have now been corrected. The voluntary top-up deadline is 5 April 2029.
Ongoing reviews
Some HRP cases are still being processed. Individual NI records may require manual correction.
Common misconceptions
Not everyone will lose pension income. Not everyone is owed compensation. And this is not a scam it is an administrative correction within official government systems.
Understanding these distinctions helps avoid unnecessary anxiety.
A Practical Example: How This Could Affect You?
Imagine a 60-year-old employee who worked for a local authority for 25 years and was contracted out during much of that time.
Her forecast originally showed she would receive the full new State Pension. After system corrections, her projection fell short by a small margin due to COPE adjustments and two incomplete NI years.
After contacting HMRC, she confirmed that buying one voluntary year would increase her pension. She chose to pay for that year, improving her projected retirement income with a break-even period of roughly three years.
The key lesson is not that everyone should buy additional years but that informed action makes a measurable difference.
What Should You Do Next?
If you are within ten years of State Pension age, now is the time to review your record. Even if you are younger, early checks allow more time to correct gaps.
Start with your online forecast. Review each tax year carefully. Confirm whether any gap genuinely reduces your entitlement. Speak directly to the National Insurance helpline if needed.
The HMRC state pension error serves as a reminder that retirement planning should never rely on assumptions alone. A short review today could protect decades of future income.
The Bottom Line
The HMRC state pension error does not mean the system has failed – but it does underline the importance of personal verification. Whether you were contracted out, relied on HRP credits, or simply want certainty about your retirement income, the steps are straightforward.
Check your record. Understand your COPE figure. Confirm any gaps. Act before April 2029 if necessary.
In retirement planning, clarity is confidence.
FAQs
Can I still top up NI contributions for years before 2016?
Yes. You can currently top up gaps from 2006 onwards, provided you act before 5 April 2029.
Will HMRC contact me automatically if I was affected?
Not always. While some reviews are proactive, individuals are encouraged to check their own records.
Is COPE deducted from my workplace pension?
No. COPE is a notional estimate used in State Pension calculations. It does not reduce your private pension payments.
Could I receive back payments?
If you were genuinely underpaid due to HRP errors, back payments may be due. Forecast corrections alone do not automatically result in back pay.
Should younger workers be concerned?
The issue primarily affects those with employment history before 2016. However, reviewing your NI record periodically is always sensible.