The automotive industry is in the middle of a historic shift, from internal combustion to the battery electric vehicle. This transition has been in the works for what might seem a very long time, but now, it seems, battery technology is finally on the cusp of the mainstream.
Predicted Number of EVs on UK Roads
The government has voiced its intention to ban the sale of new petrol and diesel vehicles by 2030. This is in keeping with its Net Zero strategy, which aims to bring carbon emissions down to net zero by 2050.
This, along with continued declines in the cost and efficiency of batteries, might be enough to persuade many more drivers to make the switch. In fact, the speed of the transition might well be such that the grid cannot deliver the necessary electricity.
2030 Predictions
A report by Auto Trader claims that around a quarter of cars on UK roads will be electric by the time the sales ban comes into force. This amounts to around eight million cars. Naturally, there will be a delay between this deadline and the broader market catching up. The data suggest that around half of cars between three and five years old will be electric at this point, but for those older than ten years, it’s closer to one per cent.
One major motivating factor for many motorists will be the availability of charging infrastructure, and the lack of availability of traditional filling stations. When petrol and diesel become niche products, we might see a more sudden switch to new technology.
It’s easy to suppose that roads in the UK will look very different in a decade’s time. But in a lot of respects, things will continue as normal. Cars will still need to be taxed and insured, and they’ll still need services and MOTs certificate. Many of the more specific insurance products, like GAP insurance, will still be relevant in a battery-electric motoring world.
How will EVs help the UK achieve its environmental goals?
The most obvious advantage of the electric vehicle is that it doesn’t produce any emissions at the point of use, which means less air pollution in cities and major roads. An electric car can save 1.5 metric tonnes of CO2 pollution. In London, where road transport produces around half the air pollution, this is a major boon.
Given that BEVs tend to be more efficient than ICE vehicles, we see a reduction in overall emissions, too. The European Energy Agency suggests that this figure is between 17-30%. It’s essential to bear in mind, however, that mining lithium and building electric cars is environmentally costly.
The emissions created by building an electric car are many times more than those created by building a conventional one. You’ll make the difference by driving the car – so, BEVs make the most environmental sense for those putting in lots of miles.
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